Walkthrough
What happened to people who retired in 1929?
Retiring in 1929 meant walking straight into the Great Depression, the worst stock crash in U.S. history. Surprisingly, it wasn’t the worst year to retire. Here’s why.
Starting with $1,000,000 and spending $40,000 a year (rising with inflation), a fixed plan still had $530,223 in today’s dollars by the end of 1958.
- Fixed spending
- Guardrails
- Guardrail buckets
| Plan | Money left (1958) | Lowest balance | Lowest yearly spending | Spending cuts | Years sold right after a drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed (4% rule style) | $530,223 | $434,556 | $40,000 | 0 | 9 |
| Guardrails | $1,083,782 | $589,178 | $32,000 | 4 | 9 |
| Guardrail buckets | $1,337,002 | $545,246 | $32,000 | 4 | 6 |
What this means
A 1929 retiree with $1,000,000 spending $40,000 a year (4.0%) went through the Great Depression. With fixed spending, the plan came through, with savings bottoming at $434,556 before ending at $530,223.
Guardrails cut spending 4 times, never below $32,000, and ended with $1,083,782. Guardrail buckets drew from cash in down years, so they sold investments right after a decline 6 times, compared with 9 times for the fixed plan.
This is one start year. To see how the same plan did across every start since 1928, use the calculators linked below.
A crash, then falling prices
U.S. stocks lost most of their value from 1929 to 1932. But consumer prices fell too, by roughly a quarter over the same years. Because a retiree’s spending rises and falls with prices, each year’s real withdrawal got cheaper, and Treasury bonds gained in real terms.
That combination, along with the recovery that followed, is why a balanced 1929 retiree came through better than a 1966 retiree, despite a far worse crash.
What it teaches
- Bonds earn their keep in a crash. Try 100% stocks above and compare.
- Inflation matters as much as returns. Falling prices softened the Depression; rising prices made the 1970s worse.
- Flexibility helps most early. Guardrails trimmed spending in the early 1930s and restored it later.
Assumptions
- Fixed and guardrail plans hold 60% stocks. Guardrail buckets keep 4 years of withdrawals in Treasuries and invest the rest 80% in stocks.
- Guardrails cut spending 10% if the withdrawal rate rises 20% above where it started and raise it 10% if it falls 20% below, with a floor at 80% of starting spending.
- Actual S&P 500, 10-year Treasury, T-bill and CPI figures for 1929–2025. Amounts in today’s dollars, before taxes and fees.
New to a term? See the retirement income glossary.
Common questions
Did people who retired in 1929 run out of money?
With a balanced 4% plan, not within 30 years in our data, because falling prices and bond gains offset part of the crash.
Was 1929 the worst year to retire?
Not for a balanced portfolio. Starts in the mid-to-late 1960s were harder because of the long period of inflation that followed.
Related tools
How we calculate this
We run three plans through the actual years since your start date: fixed inflation-adjusted spending, guardrails on the withdrawal rate, and guardrail buckets (guardrails plus a cash bucket refilled only near market highs).
Data: S&P 500 total returns, 10-year Treasury and 3-month Treasury bill returns as compiled by Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), and CPI-U inflation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1928–2025 (2025 preliminary). Read the full methodology and limitations.