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Sequence-of-returns calculator

Pick a retirement start year. We replay your withdrawals through the actual years, then through the same years in reverse, so you can see what order alone does.

Updated October 2, 2026 · U.S. market history 1928–2025 · How we test

Retiring in 1973: same returns, different order$0 vs $1.47M

After 30 years, the real order left nothing (it ran out in year 24). The same years in reverse order left $1,471,858.

Actual order, 1973–2002
Same years, reversed
Steady 5.0% a year

Each line spends $45,000 a year from $1,000,000. All three earn the same average return over the 30 years; only the order differs.

Average real return5.0%Same in all three paths

First 10 years, actual-1.6%A year, after inflation

First 10 years, reversed6.7%A year, after inflation

Withdrawal rate4.5%$45,000 a year

What this means

Over 1973–2002, a 60% stock mix averaged 5.0% a year after inflation. Run in the order it actually happened, the plan ran out in year 24. Run backward, with exactly the same returns, it ended with $1,471,858.

The real first decade was weaker than the last (-1.6% vs 6.7% a year after inflation), so withdrawals ate into savings while prices were low and those dollars never got to recover. This is sequence-of-returns risk: the early years of retirement matter most.

You can’t pick your start year, but you can plan for a bad one: keep a few years of withdrawals out of stocks, or agree in advance to small spending cuts if markets fall early.

How to read the chart

All three lines earn exactly the same average return over the 30 years. The dark line follows history as it happened. The coral line runs the same years backward, so good years come first where bad ones were, and vice versa. The dotted line earns the average every single year, which is what a simple spreadsheet projection assumes.

The gap between the lines is sequence-of-returns risk. It only exists because you are withdrawing money: without withdrawals, the order of returns makes no difference to where you end up.

Start years worth trying

1929: the Depression arrives immediately.
1966: a decade of inflation and flat stocks, the classic worst case for the 4% rule.
1973: a sharp bear market and inflation, then a long boom.
1982: the start of the best two decades in U.S. market history.
1995: a boom, then two crashes in the 2000s.

Assumptions

Spending of $45,000 rises with inflation every year. Withdrawals happen at the start of each year.
60% S&P 500 and 40% 10-year Treasuries, using actual real returns for 1973–2002.
The steady path earns the same average yearly return (compounded) every year. No taxes or fees.

New to a term? See the retirement income glossary.

Common questions

What is sequence of returns risk?

It’s the risk that poor returns arrive early in retirement, while you are withdrawing, causing lasting damage even if later returns are good.

Why does the order of returns matter?

Withdrawals during a downturn sell investments at low prices. Those shares are gone and can’t benefit from the recovery.

Related tools

How we calculate this

We take the actual sequence of real returns for your chosen 30-year stretch, run your withdrawals through it, then run the identical returns in reverse order and as a constant average. Any difference comes only from the order.

Data: S&P 500 total returns, 10-year Treasury and 3-month Treasury bill returns as compiled by Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), and CPI-U inflation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1928–2025 (2025 preliminary). Read the full methodology and limitations.