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Safe withdrawal rate calculator
Pick your retirement length, stock mix and how sure you want to be. We find the highest starting withdrawal rate that held up through U.S. market history.
Every retirement since 1928 could withdraw 3.7% of starting savings, raised each year for inflation, for 30 years with 60% stocks. That is about $37,300 a year per $1 million.
- Start year that supported this rate
- Hardest start
Historically sustainable rates by length and mix (every start)
| Retirement length | 40% stocks | 60% stocks | 80% stocks | 100% stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% |
| 25 years | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| 30 years | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 35 years | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 40 years | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
What this means
For a 30-year retirement with 60% stocks, the highest steady withdrawal rate that held up in every historical start was 3.7%. The hardest start was 1966, heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s, which supported 3.73%.
Most retirees could have spent much more: the typical start year supported 6.5%. The safe rate is low because it has to survive the worst stretch on record, not because typical markets demand it. That gap is why flexible plans like guardrails can start higher, then trim spending only if a bad stretch actually arrives.
Longer retirements need lower rates, and very low stock shares hurt as much as very high ones over long periods, because bonds often lost to inflation.
What a “safe” withdrawal rate means
A safe withdrawal rate is the share of your savings you can take out in the first year, then raise with inflation every year after, without running out over a given number of years. It’s usually expressed as a percentage of savings on the day you retire.
Safe here means historically sustainable under these assumptions, not guaranteed. The calculator above shows the rate that survived every start year (or 95% or 90% of them, if you choose), and the chart shows how widely the answer varied depending on when someone retired.
Why most years supported much more
In the typical start year, retirees could have spent far more than the safe rate. The safe rate is set by the worst periods: retiring into the Great Depression, or into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s, when both stocks and bonds lost value after inflation for years.
This is why “safe” rates feel conservative. If you can cut spending a little when markets fall, you can usually start higher than the safe rate and adjust only if a bad stretch actually happens.
How stock mix and length change the answer
Longer retirements need lower rates. Very conservative portfolios don’t help as much as you might expect over long periods, because bonds and cash often trailed inflation for decades. In U.S. history, mixes between about 50% and 80% stocks tended to support the highest sustainable rates for 30 years.
Assumptions
- A “withdrawal rate” is the first year’s withdrawal as a share of savings. After that the dollar amount rises with inflation.
- 60% S&P 500 stocks and 40% 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly. No taxes or fees.
- Every complete 30-year stretch of U.S. history from 1928 to 2025 is tested.
New to a term? See the retirement income glossary.
Common questions
What is a safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement?
Using U.S. history since 1928 and a balanced mix, it has been about 3.5% to 3.8%, depending on your stock share. Use the calculator for your exact mix.
What withdrawal rate is safe for early retirement?
For 40 to 50 years, historically sustainable rates have been lower, often in the low-to-mid 3% range. Social Security later in retirement can raise what you can take from savings early on.
Is a 5% withdrawal rate too high?
A fixed 5% failed in a meaningful share of historical 30-year starts. With guardrails that cut spending after big drops, 5% starting rates held up far more often.
Related tools
How we calculate this
For each start year we solve for the highest inflation-adjusted withdrawal that keeps every year funded through the full stretch, using that period’s actual stock, bond and inflation figures. The rate shown is the one that cleared your chosen share of start years.
Data: S&P 500 total returns, 10-year Treasury and 3-month Treasury bill returns as compiled by Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), and CPI-U inflation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1928–2025 (2025 preliminary). Read the full methodology and limitations.